The following blog was written by Talha Madni, a candidate in the Kroc School's MA in Peace & Justice program.
Pakistan is going through yet another Nazuk Mor in its history of over 75 years. The country has navigated through multiple challenges in the past, but this sharp Mor is unique in many ways. People in the driving seat are unprepared or rather unwilling to change their usual approach, the passengers are deeply disaffected and tired of trusting and going through so many challenges in the past and the anticipated troubles ahead, and, most importantly, the ride in itself can break down at any time. There is a clamor for reforms that can bring respite, welfare, and dignity to aam aadmi– not much to ask from a benevolent state. However, below the surface, an insidious development is taking place.
The country is sleepwalking towards an abyss. Never before has there been a possibility of a general uprising against the country’s elite and state institutions– a rise that can potentially upend the current political and economic structure of the country and be reminiscent of the Arab Spring. Far from crying wolf, this article is about all the indicators that point in the direction that a Pakistan Spring is in making. A widespread social uprising will not be in favor of either the elite or its masses. Emerging indicators are an alarming warning for the ruling elite thatmuch-talked-about tabdeeli needs to be implemented before it becomes too late.
Never-Ending Tale of Nazuk Mors
Recently, Harvard published a case study about all the defining moments in the country’s history and its never-ending crises. Over the stretch of 75 years, Pakistan has steered through multiple Nazuk Mors and experimented with nationalization to a laissez-faire economy, democracy to dictatorship, Islamization to enlightened moderation, statebuilding to state disintegration, wars to diplomacy, sponsoring terrorism to fighting terrorism, and the list goes on.
During all of these challenging times, other than in 1971, the country navigated through each Nazuk Mor relatively safely and never was there a general disaffection towards state institutions to an extent where the general populous would be looking for alternatives and overthrowing the existing system, which is in place for benefitting the country’s elite, as outlined in the UNDP’s Development Report 2020. Pakistan has so far been able to avoid or rather dodge this moment for multiple reasons. Stable social structure, lack of accessible information, low level of urbanization, relative food security, trust in state institutions, and hope in the country were a few key reasons; however, all of this is changing now.
Pakistan Spring in Making
Pakistan’s overarching politico-economic structure is crumbling. Economic chaos, political turmoil, unprecedented disaffection, record unemployment, poor governance, historic inflation, rising terrorism, growing grievances against censorship and ban on political dissent, and insidious climate-induced catastrophes are all the elements that are wired into the ticking time bomb of a possible uprising what I call Pakistan Spring. Recently, Adeel Malik, a professor at Oxford, has also highlighted that the country is also moving in the direction of Arab Spring.
In this article, I demonstrate that key indicators in the country match those witnessed in Arab countries right before the Arab Spring in 2010 and 2011. Arab Spring was in the making for years in those countries and yet the elite decided to look the other way and resorted to sheer brute force when it eventually spilled over.
In this regard, I rely on accessible information from the World Bank, IMF, and Varieties of Democracy, among others. Using the data from the Varieties of Democracy, Figure 1 displays a radar graph for key political, economic, and governance indicators for Pakistan in 2023 and compares it with averages of 2010 and 2011 for mentioned indices for Arab regimes. Pakistan (in the orange ring) is nestled between all the despotic Arab regimes that came crumbling down in the Arab Spring. Ironically, the country is shy of only Syria in exclusion by the political group index and just behind Yemen and Syria in the rule of law index.
Figure 1: Comparison of V-Dem Indices of Pakistan in 2023 with the averages of V-Dem Indices for 2010 and 2011 in Arab Countries
Source: V-Dem World Bank
Furthermore, if the regime types of only those countries that experienced major revolutions during the Arab Spring– Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen– are analyzed and compared with Pakistan’s current system, it appears that the country falls even behind corrupt and exclusivist regimes of Egypt and Libya in political corruption and equal distribution of resources indices, as can be seen in Figure 2. Moreover, the country is just ahead of Syria in the accountability index. Data that the current political and economic regime of the country is not any different from the despotic regimes of the Middle East in 2010 and 2011 when the Arab Spring swept through the region.
Figure 2: Comparison of V-Dem Indices of Pakistan in 2023 with the averages of V-Dem Indices for 2010 and 2011 in Countries that faced violence or government change
Source: V-Dem World Bank
As ironic as it may appear, Figure 3 is even more worrying. It shows that the trend of Pakistan’s key economic indicators like growth rate, unemployment rate, and inflation rate for 2012-2023 is following the trend for the said indicators of Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen combined for 2000-2011. Pakistan’s economy size is shrinking, the growth rate is negative, inflation is skyrocketing, and the unemployment rate is also rising. These Arab regimes also witnessed similar trends, though depending upon the economy the scale was different, right before the Arab Spring. There is a difference between the intensity of indicators, but the overall trend is quite similar.
Figure 3: Comparison of Key Economic Indicators for Pakistan (2012-2023) and average of Key Economic Indicators for Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen (2000-2011)
Source: World Bank and IMF
Far more concerning is inflation, particularly food inflation, in Pakistan (see Figure 4). Pakistan’s recent inflation rate (in the blue graph line) is either at par or above the stricken regimes during the tumultuous years of 2010 and 2011.
Figure 4: Food Inflation for Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Pakistan (in blue)
Source: Trading Economics
Spine-breaking food inflation which shot up to 48.65 percent in May 2023 is increasingly impacting access to healthy diets and hunger levels in the country. In 2023, more than 80 percent of Pakistanis struggled for access to a healthy and nutritious diet. Comparatively speaking, Pakistan’s current hunger index is still above the levels experienced by these Arab regimes during the Arab Spring, despite being an agrarian country.
Figure 5: Global Hunger Index for Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen and Pakistan (in grey)
Source: Global Hunger Index
Lastly, one of the demographic reasons for the Arab Spring in these countries, particularly Libya and Egypt, was an educated youth bulge with no economic opportunities. The median age of these economies at the time of the revolution was between 15 and 35 years with 6.9 average years of schooling. Pakistan has a huge youth bulge with more than 65 percent of its population under 30 years of age. In 2023, it had a median population of 20.3 with 6.4 average years of schooling.
Figure 6: Population by age group
Source: Our World in Data
Stifling political space, exploitative economic system, youth bulge with no opportunities, and denial of justice combined with hunger are perfect fodder for social unrest, as witnessed in the Middle East during the Arab Spring. Many researchers and correspondents have established a link between food inflation, despotic regimes, demographics, and economics.
In a nutshell, one thing that all of these indicators point out is that Pakistan is heading into a trajectory followed by Arab regimes.
Loss of Hope, Exhaustion, and Desperation for Change
One constant element in all of Pakistan’s Nazuk Mors was that citizens had a glimmer of hope about the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. They were generally optimistic and happy which possibly stopped them from distrusting the state institutions and overthrowing the existing system. However, they are, unfortunately, losing hope now and becoming disaffected. Pakistan’s score in the happiness report has decreased by 10 percent since 2019. Pakistan’s future has lost its hope in the country and youth is leaving the country in droves. Demoralization is most evident among the nation’s youth and professionals. In 2022 alone, more than 800,000 left the country which is a sign of growing disaffection, desperation, and loss of hope.
Conclusion:
Pakistan stands at a critical Nazuk Mor in its history, facing unique challenges that threaten unprecedented turmoil. The leadership seems unprepared for necessary reforms, while the populace grows disillusioned by ongoing hardships. Dire economic conditions, political instability, rampant unemployment, poor governance, severe inflation, and climate-induced disasters paint a grim picture reminiscent of the Arab Spring's precursors.
This analysis shows that Pakistan's political and economic indicators parallel those of Arab nations before their 2010-2011 uprisings. Historically, Pakistanis have maintained hope during challenges, preventing complete disaffection toward state institutions; however, this hope is waning. Without urgent reforms, Pakistan risks widespread social unrest. The ruling elite must heed these warnings and implement necessary changes to steer the nation toward stability and prosperity.